Let’s start with the unprecedented summer that is leading up to Election Day on November 5, 2024. President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump eventually led to the Democratic Party coalescing around Vice President Kamala Harris. And Trump barely escaped an assassination.
Although the deadline for this article was well before the election, we have an idea of what a Trump administration or Harris administration might look like.
The slim margins of control of both chambers of Congress made it difficult to accomplish much in 2024. A small number of U.S. House and U.S. Senate seats likely will determine control of both chambers in 2025. Both parties are hoping to win the trifecta—the presidency, House, and Senate so they can enact sweeping legislation. Given that 53 members of the House and Senate are either retiring or running for other offices, the makeup of the 119th Congress will look different.
New leadership will be in place for key committees that have jurisdiction involving legislative priorities for the Flexible Packaging Association (FPA). FPA has already begun preparing for what will come.
A small number of U.S. House and U.S. Senate seats likely will determine control of both chambers in 2025.
Lame-Duck Session
First off, there is the post-election lame-duck session when Congress will return to try and resolve remaining issues before the new administration and Congress take control in January. At the top of the list will be the fiscal year 2025 budget bills. It will be challenging for Congress to reconcile the differences between the various bills.
Other lame-duck issues will include tax extenders, artificial intelligence/tech regulatory packages, and trade policies. As has been the case for the past several years, party leadership will determine whether they are better positioned to advance proposals in 2024 or wait until the new Congress begins in January.
119th Leadership
We are not expecting another chaotic leadership battle for U.S. Speaker of the House. Even though U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) fended off an ouster attempt, he has settled into the role and is likely to remain the leader of the Republican Party. The House Democrats will keep their slate of leaders, with U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) at the top.
U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) announcement that he will step down as Republican leader at the end of the 118th Congress means there could be a contest. A race among U.S. Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Thune (R-S.D.), and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) will be determined after the new Congress begins. U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) probably will remain the leader of the Senate Democrats.
However, if either party experiences significant losses on November 5, leadership changes could happen.
Committee Changes
Here are some of the committees to watch:
- Appropriations (agency/department budget and policy issues): Both chambers will have a handful of vacancies due to attrition. There will also be membership changes across subcommittees.
- House Ways & Means (tax and trade issues): Limited change is expected, but we anticipate shifts in subcommittee assignments.
- Senate Finance (tax, trade, and energy issues): Several retirements include U.S. Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Tom Carper (D-Del.), and Ben Cardin (D-Md.).
- House Energy and Commerce (environment/recycling): The most notable change is that the chair, U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), is retiring.
- Senate Commerce (environment/recycling): Limited change is expected, but we anticipate shifts in subcommittee assignments.
- House Science, Space, and Technology (research and development/recycling/environment): Several vacancies due to attrition are expected.
- Senate Environment and Public Works (environment/recycling): Carper is retiring, but so is Cardin, the second-highest ranking Democrat. U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island is expected to fill the top slot for the Democrats. Even though U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is more senior than Whitehouse, he is not expected to give up the gavel of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee.